Steelmakers on the Edge of Loss Making
The steel mills have come to the edge of loss-making on current market price given increasing cost of the materials, China Securities Journal learned from industry analysts. In the meanwhile, Mysteel finds the main cities have a combined steel stock close to 14mln tons by last Friday.
The steel market actually is seeing few transactions though quotations go on. As the Spring Festival draws nearer, demand becomes thinner while the traders are also less enthusiastic to conclude deals.
Unlike in past years, the steel prices appeared seeing little changes last week; for construction steel, the average market price in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou slid by 30yuan/t at most; the adjustment for medium plate is some 20yuan/t; HRC price kept in line and the large and medium-size sections saw only 10yun/t vibration.
In the meanwhile, stockpile of the main steel products in China’s major cities reached 13.685mt, according to Mysteel data. Of this, rebar accounted 5.59mt, up 364,000t w-o-w, the figure for the same period last year is 2.61mt; HRC stock was 4.139mt, up 47,000t w-o-w, and the figure for the same period last year is 2.184mt. Industry insiders said the real stockpile may be 10% higher than found by the survey.
Steel demand has hit a one-year low, reportedly at 40% of normal consumption from the downstream users.
The stock therefore is still on the rise and the market pressure post the festival should be heavier. "There will be big stress of destocking after the festival." The journal learned from Xu Xiangchun, senior mysteel analyst.
The stockpile is expected to come down from mid-March, when the season supports more demand. With less heat investment and more uncertainties on credit policy this year, the possibility of quick destocking is slim, he also noted.
The recent rise of raw materials prices considerably squeezed steel products’ gross profit. According to an analyst with Shenyin & Wanguo Securities, the steelmakers have come on the edge of loss-making on present steel prices.
Domestic iron ore market kept firm with few fluctuations in some areas this week. Market resources seemed to be a little bit tight, with flat enquiries but small decreasing transactions being heard during this week.
Market price of raw materials edged down due to soft steel price this week. However, the overall iron ore market remained to be strong. On the other hand, spot transactions declined, dating back to the bad weather. But steelmakers' inventory of finished steel was on increase without any output cut.
Chinese domestic iron ore market was damped by steel market with small decline in Northeast area. Yet the market continued to be firm in other areas and it was forecasted to be stable in general with only a few fluctuations in some areas in the future.
Imported iron ore market ran weakly with mixed offers recently. Price for Fe 63.5 Indian ore was posting at $126-128 in futures market and RMB950 or so in cash market. Imported iron ore piled at major domestic seaports edged down to 67.33m tons, a decrease of 0.09mln tons from a week before.
Steelmakers still hold a cautious attitude right now and some areas have witnessed a shortage of resource supply due to the long delivery time. Well, miners were lack of sufficient output. Hence they are quite optimistic about the market after Chinese Spring Festival.
And Mysteel analysts speculate that domestic iron ore market would continue firm with small fluctuations in few areas in a short term.
Iron ore price changes in the major areas of China:
| product | iron ore concentrate in Liaoning Province | iron ore concentrate in Liaoning Province | iron ore concentrate in Liaoning Province | iron ore concentrate in Hebei Province | iron ore concentrate in Hebei Province | iron ore concentrate in Shandong Province |
| grade | 66%(wet basis) | 65%(wet basis) | 66% | 66% | 66% | 65% |
| (Fe %) | ||||||
| price (yuan/ton) | 600-620 | 620 | 800 | 920-940 | 950 | 1060 |
| week-on-week | -10 | -10 | - | -20 | - | - |
| up/down | ||||||
| place of origin | Beipiao | Gongchangling | Fushun | Tangshan | Handan-Xingtai region | Luzhong, Jinling |
| product | iron ore concentrate in Shanxi Province | pellet in Anhui Province | iron ore concentrate in Anhui Province | iron ore concentrate in Jiangsu Province | Iron ore concentrate in Guangdong Province | Iron ore concentrate in Hubei Province |
| grade | 64%(wet basis) | 62% | 64% | 65% | 65% (wet basis) | 63% |
| (Fe %) | ||||||
| price (yuan/ton) | 690 | 1080 | 960 | 1000 | 650 | 880 |
| week-on-week | - | - | - | - | - | +10 |
| up/down | ||||||
| place of origin | Daixian | Anqing | Fanchang | Zhenjiang | Huaiji | Daye |
Weekly Summarization of Iron Ore Market in China during Feb 1 - 5, 2010
Notes: All prices listed above include 17% VAT, except for those made in Beipiao, Gongchangling, Handan-Xingtai region, and Daixian.
North China:
Local iron ore market turned to be gloomy with flat enquiries and transactions closed compared with previous time.
Currently, mainstream offer prices for 66% Fe dry ore decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 950 yuan/ton (incl. vat, on acceptance, delivery-to-mill) from leading mills in Tangshan Region.
In Hangdan-Xingtai Region, price for 66% Fe dry ore was posted at 950 yuan/ton (excl. vat), while in Wu'an, 64% Fe wet ore stayed at 820-830 yuan/ton (excl. vat), down 20 yuan/ton.
In Shanxi Daixian, 64% Fe wet ore was posted at 690 yuan/ton (excl. vat), cash deals kept flat.
Northeast China:
Local iron ore market price fell back by around 10 yuan/ton there this week, yet with still firm mainstream offer. The whole transaction and inquiry turned to be weak there.
At present, the 65% Fe wet ore at Yingkou stays at about 620yuan/ton (excl. vat), and 65% Fe wet ore at Dandong stays at about 600-20yuan/ton (excl. vat). And the mainstream offer prices for 65% Fe wet ore held at 640-650 yuan/ton (excl. vat) at Anshan & Hancheng ports
Offer prices for 65% Fe wet ore held at 620-630 and 600-620 yuan/ton (excl. vat) respectively in Liaoyang & Benxi.
Price for 66% Fe dry ore was posted at 800 yuan/ton (incl. vat) in Fushun. Offer prices for 66% Fe wet went at 650-660 yuan/ton (excl. vat) in Jianping.
In Chaoyang, 66% Fe wet ore was priced at 620-630 yuan/ton (excl. vat) and in Beipiao, it prevailed at 600-620 yuan/ton.
Some insiders forecast local iron ore market is likely to firm downwardly there.
East China and Mid-South: Local iron ore market stabilized there in the week with flat transactions compared with previous week. Ex-works price for Fe 64-65% dry ore stayed at 1060 yuan/ton (incl. vat, on acceptance) from larger miners in Shandong.
In Anhui Fanchang, 64% Fe dry ore prevailed at 960 yuan/ton (incl. vat).
Most steel mills in South were cautious about future market yet miners remained to be optimistic on the market after traditional Spring Festival. Price for 65% Fe wet ore remained to be at 650 yuan/ton (excl. vat)in Guangdong Huaiji. In Hubei Daye,63% Fe dry ore stayed at 880 yuan/ton (incl. vat) and local ore market would stabilize in a short term.

